SAVING of PROTECTION INVESTMENT

Manajemen Resiko

Dalam manajemen resiko, kita perlu menyadari bahwa segala benda di dunia ini memiliki resiko untuk mengalami kerusakan, termasuk diri kita sendiri. Oleh karena itu, kita perlu menganalisa resiko-resiko apa aja yang ada, berapa besar peluang resiko tersebut terjadi, beserta berapa besar kerugian yang akan dialami. Untuk resiko-resiko yang dapat menimbulkan kerugian besar ataupun memiliki peluang tinggi, kita perlu menyiapkan rencana antisipasi agar kehidupan rutin kita jangan sampai terlalu banyak terganggu apabila kerusakan tersebut terjadi.

Sebagai contoh, perhatikan cerita dibawah ini:

James adalah seorang manager di perusahaan swasta yang cukup terkenal di Jakarta . Beliau sudah berkeluarga dan memiliki 2 orang anak. Setiap harinya James mengendarai sedan Balenonya untuk pergi ke kantor.

Pada suatu hari, musibah datang menimpa James. Mobil sedan yang dikendarainya ditabrak oleh bus yang melanggar lampu merah. Mobil James mengalami kerusakan parah sementara James sendiri jatuh tidak sadarkan diri sehingga langsung dilarikan ke rumah sakit.

Ternyata luka yang dialami oleh James cukup parah. Selama seminggu James berada dalam kondisi koma, tidak sadarkan diri. Setelah sadar, James masih harus dirawat nginap dalam rumah sakit selama dua minggu dan setelah itu kesehatan James harus dicek setiap seminggunya. Sementara tangannya yang mengalami patah tulang tidak bisa digunakan untuk bekerja selama 3 bulan.

Perusahaan tempat James bekerja merasa turut berduka cita atas musibah yang menimpa James. Mereka mengirimkan bunga dan menjenguk James pada saat di rumah sakit. Namun karena James tidak bisa bekerja dalam 3 bulan mendatang, mereka memutuskan untuk memberhentikan James.

Berapa kerugian finansial yang diderita oleh James?

1. Mobil sedannya yang hancur karena ditabrak bus.


2. Ongkos rawat nginap rumah sakit hingga 3 minggu.


3. Obat-obatan yang diperlukan untuk memulihkan kesehatan James.


4. Ongkos medical check-up setelah keluar dari rumah sakit.


5. Kehilangan pekerjaan yang menjadi sumber penghasilan utamanya.

Yang perlu diperhatikan disini adalah bahwa semua orang memiliki risiko mengalami musibah seperti cerita diatas. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi setiap orang untuk mempelajari manajemen resiko. Apa yang Anda lakukan untuk mengantisipasi kejadian seperti diatas? Jawabannya ada 2, yaitu menyiapkan dana darurat atau mengalihkan resiko ke pihak lain.

Dana Darurat

Dana darurat adalah sejumlah uang yang sengaja Anda sisihkan untuk digunakan pada saat darurat. Biasanya dana ini disimpan dalam bentuk tabungan dengan rekening khusus yang tidak boleh ditarik jika bukan dalam keadaan darurat. Kelebihan dari dana darurat adalah bahwa dana ini adalah tabungan Anda. Uang dalam dana darurat akan tetap menjadi milik Anda jika tidak terjadi musibah. Dan uang ini bisa Anda gunakan untuk apa saja yang Anda mau.

Sementara kekurangan dari dana darurat adalah dibutuhkan kedisiplinan untuk secara berkala menyimpan uang ke rekening dana darurat. Dan kedisiplinan juga diperlukan agar dana darurat ini benar-benar disimpan, tidak ditarik untuk keperluan harian.

Namun, kekurangan terbesar dari dana darurat adalah terbatasnya jumlah uang yang bisa Anda tabung sebagai dana darurat. Dalam kasus seperti James diatas, dana darurat tidak akan cukup untuk mengganti seluruh kerugian finansial yang diderita oleh James. Dalam hal ini, Anda perlu mempertimbangkan cara manajemen resiko yang lain.

Mengalihkan Resiko ke Pihak Lain

Cara lain untuk mengantisipasi resiko adalah dengan cara mengalihkan resiko tersebut ke pihak lain. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan cara membeli asuransi. Dalam perjanjian asuransi, Anda menyerahkan sejumlah uang yang disebut premi kepada pihak penanggung(perusahaan asuransi) dan pihak penanggung berjanji akan memberikan ganti rugi kepada Anda jika Anda mengalami musibah.

Kelebihan dari cara ini adalah Anda akan mendapatkan uang ganti rugi dalam jumlah besar apabila terjadi musibah. Dengan perencanaan asuransi yang baik, James tidak perlu mengeluarkan uang pribadi satu sen pun untuk menutupi seluruh kerugian finansial yang disebutkan diatas.

Kekurangannya adalah resiko yang ditanggung oleh asuransi terbatas pada perjanjian polis asuransi. Misalkan perjanjian asuransi hanya meng- cover kerugian akibat meninggal, maka pihak asuransi tidak akan memberikan ganti rugi untuk ongkos perawatan di rumah sakit. Selain itu, perjanjian asuransi juga memiliki batas waktu (biasanya hanya berlaku setahun). Jika dalam periode tersebut tidak terjadi apa-apa, maka uang premi yang telah Anda bayar akan hangus.

Ironis memang, disatu sisi Anda memerlukan ganti rugi dalam jumlah besar apabila Anda mengalami musibah. Namun disisi lain polis asuransi membutuhkan biaya yang besar. Oleh karena itulah Anda perlu menganalisa kebutuhan Anda sendiri. Anda perlu menetapkan sendiri resiko-resiko apa saja yang harus ditanggung oleh pihak asuransi, dan resiko mana saja yang bisa diatasi dengan dana darurat.

Untuk mempelajari lebih banyak mengenai manajemen resiko, Anda dapat membaca buku saya yang berjudul “ Keuangan Pribadi: Resep Rahasia Dibalik Kesuksesan Kaum Kaya “. Buku ini dijual secara online pada situs KeuanganPribadi.com

Lindungi keluarga anda dari resiko yang tidak diinginkan. Hubungi Taurida Adinda di 08129713476 or 08888322897

Novia D. Rulistia, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The banking sector needs to boost its lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) due to the sector's proven resilience and huge contribution to employment and the economy, a seminar determined Monday.

Ali Masykur Musa, lawmaker from House of Representatives Commission XI overseeing financial affairs, said that while the loans were on the rise, banks were still not meeting their potential when it came to extending loans to SMEs.

"So far, the SMEs only take about 40 percent of the annual lending provided by banks, while the other 60 percent goes to large companies," he said.

"That's not good enough considering the role the SMEs play in the economy."

According to the cooperatives and SMEs ministry, SMEs made up 90 percent of the country's 48.9 million business enterprises in 2006. They employed 96 percent of approximately 88 million workers that year.

"While other businesses are still struggling to get their feet back on the ground around 10 years after the (economic) crisis, the SMEs sector remains resilient and has been showing good performance in supporting the economy," Ali said.

Andang Setyobudi, head of research and development at Bank Indonesia's credit and SMEs directorate, said a fully empowered SMEs sector was the answer to Indonesia's wide income disparity.

"Funding accessibility for the SMEs must be increased. Not only from banks, but also from non-bank institutions, such as cooperatives, pawnshops and venture capital."

Andang said the central bank predicted bank loans to SMEs this year would increase by up to 20 percent from last year, on the back of a government program which provides funds to guarantee bank loans to SMEs.

The absence of collateral is among the key reasons behind banks' reluctance to provide loans to SMEs.

The government program, which was launched last November, involves six banks: Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN), Bank Bukopin and Bank Syariah Mega.

Budi Gunadi Sadikin, director of micro and retail banking at Bank Mandiri, told the seminar the bank expected a 20 percent increase in SME credits this year.

In 2007, the bank disbursed Rp 15.7 billion for SMEs, up from Rp 9.25 billion in 2006.

Ari Pitoyo, Analyst

Nowadays, an investment portfolio should be adequately geared against inflation.

Tempeh, a food for the masses made from fermented soybeans, nearly went extinct recently! Well, at least on Monday when producers stopped production to vent their frustration at the presidential palace over rising soybean prices.

That should have come as no surprise. Over the last six months soybean prices have gone up 150 percent. While the price per kilogram of soybean in January 2007 was Rp 3,400, now it has reached Rp 7,500. Separately, pressure has also been felt by other food producers, like small noodle producers whose margins are being squeezed by rising flour prices.

This rising trend in prices brings us to our question of the day: how should we position our investment portfolio in this climate?

Since inflation is used as a benchmark for determining real returns, first of all we should ask ourselves: how far could the officially published consumer price index (CPI) inflation figures be relied upon?

Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that headline inflation may be understated. Producers have apparently been dealing with the rise in raw material prices through reductions in volume, weight and quality. A producer of household appliances we recently talked to dealt with rising costs by reducing the thickness of their products while modifying the designs to maintain the sense of sturdiness. In the property sector, we noticed one developer building fewer public spaces while offering smaller houses to help sustain margins.

Published inflation figures would probably be of more use to measure raw materials with the same quality and size. But how accurate do they account for price changes in processed or manufactured items, which are subject to tinkering and manipulation by their producers?

Considering this, it may be useful to also look at the wholesale price index (WPI), which measures the change in the prices of goods at the wholesale level. The latest available data for the WPI shows a year-on-year increase of over 16 percent in October 2007, much higher than the CPI increase of only 6.9 percent for the same period.

One interesting observation is that commodity prices have not shown signs of receding even though there are indications of a possible U.S. recession. Perhaps this could be attributed to China and India's unquenched appetite for energy, or to global warming that's affecting food crop harvests. One way or the other, there appears to be a fundamental reason for the rise in prices, and this would not be easily overturned by a U.S. recession. A recession may slow things down or provide temporary respite, but commodity prices may well advance in the long-term.

An investment portfolio, in our opinion, should be able to hedge against high inflation while capitalizing on the still low price of fuel (in Indonesia). But at the same time, it is also wise to have the portfolio's performance hedged against adjustments in subsidized fuel prices.

What should be the required return on the portfolio? We suggest a real return higher than WPI inflation (i.e. in the range of 16 percent in 2007), which we believe is the better measure. Using the WPI as a benchmark would put time deposits and bonds off the table. The one-month deposit rate now stands at 6.5 percent p.a. while the 5-year government bond now has a yield of 9.2 percent p.a. This explains the stellar performance of the Indonesian equity market, wherein the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) yielded a return of over 50 percent in 2007.

Will the robust performance of equities be repeated in 2008? Although the index may not surge as fast as it did in 2007, it is difficult to envisage a downward trend as long as alternative investments still yield a negative return against WPI inflation. Being selective in stock-picking could still provide good returns, with emphasis on sectors having inflation protection characteristics.

We may have to dig deep since valuations are currently high. Bloomberg estimation of JCI's Price to Earnings ratio was 18.9x, a return of just 5.3 percent. Unless earnings growth achieved on a stock is significantly higher than its return, the stock will not provide adequate protection against inflation.

The property sector may well be a wise pick. Valuations are straightforward. Consider the net asset values of property stocks and look at the cost of capital applied to achieve that value. As long as the cost of capital matches the required return, the company may be worth including in the portfolio.

Another factor worth considering is the size of the property company's developed land bank and completed projects. As they were developed or built while fuel prices were still heavily subsidized, the price of the assets are subject to revaluation when fuel subsidies are eventually lifted.

For 2008, an investment portfolio should have an inflation-hedge characteristic. What inflation? Definitely not CPI inflation.
The writer is head of research analyst at PT Bahana Securities

Thursday, 31. January 2008, 13:39:48

BSI, Indonesia's economy, Business
Martin Jenkins, Analyst

In order to forecast economic activity in the near future, economists have a number of tools available at their disposal. One of the most useful of them is the Business Sentiment Index (BSI).

To construct the index, Danareksa Research Institute (DRI) surveys more than 700 chief executives or directors from the nation's leading companies across the full spectrum of industrial sectors.

DRI's most recent survey covers the two months of October-November 2007. In the previous seven surveys the BSI had been in an uptrend as economic growth picked up further. But in the October-November 2007 survey, the uptrend was broken: the BSI tumbled by 9.4 percent to 122.6.

What was behind this drop? And does it signal greater economic challenges ahead?

Well, in regard to current conditions, CEOs gave a much less positive assessment of the state of national economic conditions: this index tumbled 15.3 percent to 80.5, a low not seen since the beginning of 2007.

To a large extent, this decline might reflect the seasonal slowdown in economic activity during the period of the survey as a result of the long Idul Fitri holidays.

During the holidays following the fasting month of Ramadhan — in which most factories shut down for at least a week — many workers visit their hometowns. And it takes a while for economic activity to return to normal as many workers delay their return to the cities.

But more crucially, CEOs are having to contend with higher energy prices as crude oil prices remain stubbornly high despite recent declines from close to the US$100 a barrel level.

State owned oil giant Pertamina has consequently adjusted its fuel prices for industrial customers upward. And with prices of other types of energy also rising — especially coal and gas — corporate profitability may come under pressure.

Indeed, this is borne out in our survey with a 9.0 percent fall in the profitability index to 102.8.

Nonetheless, from a positive aspect, CEOs appear fairly confident about being able to raise prices to mitigate the negative impact of higher costs (the product prices index advanced 4 percent to 131.4).

Looking forward over the next six months, DRI's Business Sentiment Survey also reveals CEO concerns on the country's economic outlook. Worryingly, this index fell below the 100 level for more than a year to stand at 94.4 or down from 114.7 in the previous survey.

Such concerns reflect a number of factors, but especially — as mentioned earlier — soaring crude oil prices. This raises fears of higher inflation and possible monetary tightening in the year ahead.

And with high crude oil prices, the government said last year that it was strongly considering plans to limit sales of subsidized fuel. Although this would not affect industry directly since fuel sold to industrial customers is not subsidized, CEOs still had good reason to be concerned.

Note that back in October 2005 when fuel prices were more than doubled the economy received a severe shock. Inflation soared a phenomenal 8.7 percent month-on-month in that month and monetary policy was subsequently tightened. As a result, economic growth stuttered, as consumers reined in spending.

Consequently, corporate profits are expected to come under some pressure: the expected profits index slumped 10.9 percent to 124.7.

This finding certainly seems to be the case for the nation's automotive sector, for example, where automakers have said that despite rising inflationary pressures they would limit increases in car prices to only around 2 percent - 3 percent in 2008.

This, they say, is far below the level needed to take into account the impact of surging crude oil prices and other rising costs. According to the automakers it is not possible for them to raise prices too much given the elasticity of demand to hikes in selling prices.

Against this backdrop, CEOs are now less convinced that further cuts in interest rates are in the pipeline. The DRI survey shows that only 25.4 percent of CEOs now expect BI to cut rates in the next six months ahead vis-…-vis 35.3 percent in the previous survey.

Nonetheless, it is important not to come to any hasty conclusions on the nation's economic outlook given that the Business Sentiment Index has only fallen once after seven consecutive increases.

And despite mounting fears of recession in the U.S., Indonesia's economy is likely to remain vibrant with growth driven by low domestic interest rates, strong commodity prices, and greater investment activity.

In essence, the trend of the BSI is all-important and future surveys will show whether the uptrend in the business sentiment index has really come to an end or if the decline in the BSI in the October-November 2007 survey was merely a one-off.

The writer is an analyst at PT Danareksa Research Institute

Source : The Jakarta Post